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JATO finds CO2 emissions rose as customers shifted from diesel

Analysis carried out by JATO Dynamics has found that total average of CO2 emissions increased by 2.4 g/km to 120.5 g/km in 2018 – the highest average of the last four years.  The study covered 23 markets in Europe and found a direct correlation between diesel car registrations and average CO2 emissions.

With increased negative public perception towards diesels, combined with new government regulations such as WLTP and scrutiny of the fuel type, demand for diesel fell by 18 per cent in 2018. Felipe Munoz, JATO’s global analyst commented, “The introduction of WLTP in September 2018 has been a challenge for the market, as a large number of available vehicles had not been homologated yet. The increase in CO2 is certainly worrying and bad news for governments and most carmakers. Instead of moving forwards, the industry is regressing at a time when emissions targets are getting tougher”. The data is NEDC correlated and not WLTP.

The total value of CO2 emissions was on a steady decline from 2007, but started to slow down in 2016 as the fall reduced from -4.1 g/km in 2015 to -1.4 g/km. At the same time, the sales growth of diesel cars fell from +7 per cent to +1 per cent. This trend was confirmed in 2017 with the first average CO2 emission increase in years of 0.3 g/km, and an 8 per cent drop in demand for diesel cars. Last year saw an even greater variation between demand for diesel (-18 per cent) and an increase in CO2 emissions (+2.4 g/km).

Although the decline of diesel has certainly had an impact on emissions, it wasn’t the sole cause. The arrival of new SUVs last year, including the launch of 16 new models, paired with an increase in demand for the car type also contributed to the overall increase of average CO2 emissions in Europe. The emissions averages for SUVs worsened by 1.4 g/km, and the SUV segment counted for 35 per cent of passenger car registrations last year – the only segment to post a positive change in 2018.

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